long ES @ 1195

covered ES @ 1193.5

for 3 points profit.

short ES @ 1196.5

sold ES @ 1196.25

for 10.25 points profit.

Long ES @ 1186

Here's what's next:

Nothing fancy here. I'm going to keep it VERY SIMPLE and show some crude charts simply to illustrate my projections for the next few weeks:

1. Broad markets will fall to new lows.

2. The US$ will break out strongly from its 4 month consolidation.

3. Gold will go NUTS. Those who think Gold is parabolic now haven't seen anything. This thing could go to 2200 in the near term.




















I'm confident in my projections, but let's not forget the other side. If the following happen, it means I have misread these markets, and we are in for something different:

1. The ES holds above 1210.
2. The US$ fails to break above the 200DMA (roughly 76)
3. Gold fails to make a new high or drops below 1800.

Makes no difference to me if these projections turn out wrong. I'm water. I'll flow right along with with what the market gives me. I'm 100% cash and I'll wait for confirmation before taking any position--which will be posted real time!

sold ES @ 1191

for 39 points profit. i think there are 10-15 points more upside left, but i'll leave those to someone else..i'm now focused on looking for a good short entry over the next couple days.

long ES @ 1152

ok..i'm starting to like the strength in the market here, i got back in because i think we could be in for a bigger bounce than i originally anticipated, i'm looking for ES trade between 1180-1190 over the next week or so.

~dk

edit: here's the chart..

sold ES @ 1148

For 7 points. I think this might be the start of a larger bounce but the trade is counter trend and I made the decision to bail if ES couldn't take out the recent high in the next hour. I'll have to wait for a better set-up, preferably with the trend next time..

long ES @ 1141

Just for a quick bounce.. I'll bail if ES doesn't make a higher high in the next hour or so..

market thoughts before the NFP

the weak action in the S&P over the past 2 days looks like the start of a new down wave. if the S&P can't get back above 1210 tomorrow i expect it to trade down to the lower end of the range around 1150 very rapidly. if this lower support fails it sets up a move to new lows under 1100 in the coming weeks. this would likely be followed by a sharp bear market rally, possibly sparked by the Bernanke after the extended September Fed meeting, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

non-farm payrolls are released pre-market Friday. these numbers could be a catalyst to start the selling or help the market break out above 1230.. it's hard to believe that analysts still expect positive numbers given the terrible economic and consumer confidence numbers out recently, but you never know with that crazy model...

if the market breaks upwards the move should be contained by the 200dma and the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, both lie around 1280.

i won't be around during the trading day Friday, so more charts this weekend after the action...